Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 10.545387 12.090636 13.756848 15.683723 17.847190 20.197781 22.941419
2025-07-13 8.427554 10.551501 13.020315 16.088263 19.783635 24.075570 29.421014
2025-07-20 7.328484 9.708724 12.610855 16.383727 21.129956 26.871231 34.306730
2025-07-27 6.331173 8.832788 12.018392 16.331457 21.971303 29.042701 38.519073
2025-08-03 5.514127 8.054290 11.415397 16.130506 22.506130 30.750020 42.123807
2025-08-10 4.920760 7.496104 11.024810 16.136265 23.258337 32.722902 46.120601
2025-08-17 4.476086 7.087573 10.781990 16.291620 24.179075 34.920883 50.478464
2025-08-24 4.043288 6.644958 10.439827 16.258149 24.803094 36.711121 54.329943
2025-08-31 3.642553 6.205542 10.055639 16.116883 25.237154 38.225867 57.832796
2025-09-07 3.353065 5.907311 9.850625 16.212106 25.999588 40.217414 62.074133
2025-09-14 3.182913 5.781798 9.894883 16.678187 27.325341 43.068170 67.664506
2025-09-21 2.894486 5.431289 9.552773 16.509160 27.658306 44.449504 71.127520
2025-09-28 2.504863 4.875417 8.841855 15.711805 26.980402 44.299700 72.328720
2025-10-05 2.376986 4.766853 8.862432 16.105733 28.209926 47.118123 78.171153
2025-10-12 2.245298 4.636940 8.832667 16.405505 29.290685 49.736818 83.792983
2025-10-19 2.068761 4.405803 8.607124 16.351762 29.777007 51.426242 88.011802
2025-10-26 1.887867 4.147699 8.311493 16.151079 29.995839 52.681952 91.572754
2025-11-02 1.753458 3.967087 8.141090 16.156672 30.558805 54.510517 96.116818
2025-11-09 1.650683 3.839846 8.058738 16.312263 31.383371 56.796048 101.484986
2025-11-16 1.533101 3.670059 7.881658 16.278732 31.866152 58.520038 105.976648
2025-11-23 1.413347 3.483344 7.656484 16.137315 32.141772 59.894073 109.920213
2025-11-30 1.329825 3.366900 7.560255 16.232643 32.846568 62.024312 115.212017
2025-12-07 1.290610 3.345554 7.653433 16.699250 34.255705 65.428975 122.804613